Central Texas housing market steadies in early 2026 as inventory, prices, and demand rebalance

A market shifting toward balance as spring approaches

Central Texas entered 2026 with signs of a more normalized housing environment, marked by stable pricing, a large pool of active listings, and a measurable increase in buyer activity. New regional data for January shows demand strengthening even as overall closed sales remained lower than a year earlier, a combination that points to a market transitioning away from the extreme swings of the pandemic-era cycle.

Across the Austin–Round Rock–San Marcos metro area, the median price for residential homes in January was $400,495, down 2.3% from January 2025. Active listings totaled 10,083 properties, up 2.3% year over year, while pending sales rose to 2,349—an increase of 10.1% from the same month last year and more than 23% higher than December. Months of inventory stood at 4.0, down 1.4 months from a year earlier, suggesting demand is absorbing supply more quickly than it did at the start of 2025.

What the numbers show in Austin and Travis County

Within the City of Austin, the median home price in January was $522,500, a 5.0% decline year over year. Pending sales climbed 9.3% to 797, while active listings were essentially flat at 3,262 (down 0.7%). Inventory tightened to 3.9 months, two months lower than a year earlier, indicating a firmer pace of turnover than the broader metro even with fewer new listings.

In Travis County, the median price was $445,000, down 6.3% year over year. Pending sales rose 11.1% to 1,044, while active listings fell 2.7% to 4,462. Inventory registered 3.9 months—also two months lower than last January—consistent with the pattern of improving demand meeting a steady-to-slightly-lower supply of available homes.

Mortgage rates and affordability pressures

Mortgage borrowing costs have been comparatively steady around the 6% range in early February, with Freddie Mac’s weekly survey placing the average 30-year fixed rate at 6.09% as of February 12, 2026. While this remains well above the ultra-low levels that shaped homeowner behavior earlier in the decade, the recent stability has helped reduce uncertainty for buyers and sellers planning for the spring season.

Leasing market: softer rents, more options

The region’s leasing market also reflects easing conditions for consumers. Metro-wide, January’s median rent was $2,000, down 4.8% from a year earlier, while active lease listings surged 47.3% to 6,486. In the City of Austin, the median rent was $2,100 (down 4.5%), and active lease listings climbed 88.5% to 4,016—an expansion in available inventory that can increase renter choice and reduce competitive pressure.

• Metro (January 2026): median home price $400,495; pending sales 2,349; active listings 10,083; inventory 4.0 months.
• City of Austin (January 2026): median home price $522,500; pending sales 797; inventory 3.9 months.
• Metro leases (January 2026): median rent $2,000; active lease listings 6,486.

The combined picture from early 2026 is a housing market where demand is rebuilding without the sharp price acceleration that defined earlier years, while inventory levels remain high enough to give buyers and renters more negotiating room than during peak-tight periods.